Part One: the Offense.
The Sooners are picked by league coaches to win their sixth straight Big 12 Conference Championship.
Most of that confidence stems from Lincoln Riley's three-year tenure as head coach. Since Riley arrived in 2015 as Offensive Coordinator, Oklahoma has made four College Football Playoff appearances, had back-to-back Heisman Trophy winners and first round NFL #1 draft picks in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and has compiled a 36-6 overall record his first three seasons.
Riley has been anointed as the "quarterback whisperer" and his most recent two recruits at the position have been ranked the consensus #1 quarterback in their respective recruiting classes.
How bad is it for the rest of the Big 12?
Red River rival head coach Tom Herman of Texas began his tenure in 2017, the same year as Riley started in Norman, is 1-3 head-to-head and was asked in the off-season what stood in the way of Texas' getting over the hump against their main rival?
Herman said it was essential to continue an effort to recruit and develop elite talent and then added,
"...then hopefully one of these days they'll stop having first and second round draft picks at quarterback."
OU-ch.
Sorry to tell Coach Herman but Spencer Rattler and Caleb Williams might just keep that OU tradition alive well past his shelf life in Austin.
College football legacies are born when the coaches winning reputation surpasses that of its elite players they recruit and develop.
The Lincoln Riley era has been well-solidified in only his third season in Norman drawing comparisons to Barry Switzer's own 32-1-1 first three year start.
The only thing missing are Barry's two national championships.
So it is appropriate we will start with the strength of the team: Lincoln Riley’s offense.
Quarterback
For the fourth straight season, Oklahoma will start a different quarterback.
However, this time an unproven redshirt freshman will get the call.
Spencer Rattler is a heralded 5-star recruit from Scottsdale, Arizona. He arrived in Norman last summer just in time to backup Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts.
Rattler saw limited action in 2019 to preserve his redshirt season but displayed brief glimpses of the talent that he developed in the desert as the top dual-threat quarterback in the nation.
Despite redshirt sophomore Tanner Mordecai being listed higher on the depth chart last season, the job is Rattler’s to lose.
Lincoln Riley will go with an unproven redshirt freshman for the first time during his tenure at OU.
Baker Mayfield had a transfer season at Texas Tech plus a redshirt year in 2014 before taking the reigns in 2015.
Same for Kyler Murray who transferred from Texas A&M. Except Murray sat a second year in 2017 when Mayfield was awarded an extra year of eligibility.
Can you even believe that now looking back?
Hurts came straight from a three-straight CFP Championship game appearance and SEC Player of the Year honor at Alabama as a graduate transfer for his sole season in Norman.
So, even though Mordecai has two seasons under his belt with Riley, Rattler will be the starter against Missouri State on September 5 or August 29, if the NCAA grants OU’s request to move up the game.
If history is any indication, Sooner fans should hang on as Rattler will be the most-heralded, least experienced quarterback to start a season in Norman since true freshman Rhett Bomar in 2005 (Paul Thompson actually started the home opener but was replaced by Bomar after a shaky start and Bomar started the rest of the season).
And OU fans remember how the home opener turned out against TCU that year.
Rattler possesses a quick-release, rocket arm and is nimble in the pocket.
He can make all of the throws and is shifty-fast to escape pressure while still keeping his eyes downfield. He threw for over 11,000 yards in Arizona during his high school career and added 1,000 yards rushing.
The only knock is his diminutive stature.
Listed at 6’ and 197 lbs., Rattler will need to be protected as he’s not the physical specimen Hurts was and you saw how much punishment Hurts absorbed in 2019.
But we’ve been down this "size matters" road before with both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and those two worked out just fine.
If Mordecai doesn’t enter the transfer portal, expect to see him if anything happens to Rattler. True freshman Chandler Morris from Highland Park, Texas will be third on the depth chart. Redshirt senior Tanner Schafer was just placed on scholarship in February.
This is an area of huge upside potential that comes with some risk if past history tells us anything.
Let’s hope Rattler can maintain his health, poise and head on-and-off the field.
Lincoln Riley is staking his reputation on him.
Running Backs
A position that looked loaded with depth heading into 2020, has rapidly vanished since the Sugar Bowl against LSU.
Redshirt Junior Kennedy Brooks returns for his third season and will headline the running game. Brooks emerged as the star of the backfield in 2019 totaling 1,011 yards and six touchdowns on 155 carries. His 6.5 yards per carry ranked 9th nationally and first in the Big 12 while splitting carries with Trey Sermon, the Sooners fourth leading rusher with 385 yards on 54 carries, and Senior Rhamondre Stevenson, 515 yard on 64 carries.
The Mansfield, Texas native was named a pre-season All Big 12 selection by league coaches.
All seemed poised for growth in 2020 especially since last season's leading rusher was quarterback Jalen Hurts, 233 carries and 1,298 yards, and he is now in the NFL.
But Sermon entered the transfer portal and is now an Ohio State Buckeye (that sounds strange) and Stevenson was suspended for the first 5-games due to a failed drug test prior to the Sugar Bowl.
So that leaves junior T.J. Pledger, redshirt freshman Marcus Major and true freshman Seth McGowan as the depth at running back.
Pledger and Major have 50 carries between the two of them in three seasons.
The early schedule is front-loaded and daunting.
An early home game against an improved Tennessee, chomping at the bit on the off-season message boards for revenge of their 2015 loss in Knoxville, followed by a tough road game at Army and their option run game that stretched the Sooners to overtime in 2018, the Big 12 opener against Baylor in Norman and the annual Red River Rivalry with Texas in Dallas and a tough road trip to Ames against pesky Iowa State.
None of these are hospitable environments or situations for an untested redshirt freshman quarterback and thin receiver corps lacking a spring season of practice.
Sooners will need to keep Brooks healthy and hope the young-uns can provide adequate backup until Stevenson returns from suspension.
Offensive Line
We started last season with a new crew at offensive line as four long-time starters were all NFL-drafted.
Those growing pains were evident early as Jalen Hurts became a one-man show with his breakaway runs from the pocket.
Things did settle down later as Bill Bedenbaugh worked his magic and 91% of those starts return.
Redshirt junior center Creed Humphrey, a preseason All America pick and returning Big 12 Co-Offensive Lineman of the Year, returns with 14 starts at center and leads a line of redshirt juniors in Adrian Ealy, 12 starts at right tackle, Marquis Hayes, 13 starts at left guard, and Tyrese Robinson, who started 14 games at right guard. Humphrey and Ealy were both named Preseason All Big 12 selections.
Redshirt senior Erik Swenson, 8 starts at left tackle, will get the nod at first. However, UCLA sophomore transfer Chris Murray's status remains in NCAA limbo but he has 24 starts at UCLA and would push for a starter position if available. Redshirt freshman Stacey Wilkins, redshirt sophomore Brey Walker and redshirt freshman E.J. Ndoma-Ogar are three heralded recruits who will be counted on to add quality depth. True freshman Andrew Raym from Broken Arrow, has Bedenbaugh raving and could see action at guard or center if necessary.
This experienced Sooner line will be formidable to deal with and is just what Lincoln Riley needs for an unproven quarterback, inexperienced running back and receiving corps.
Receivers
Another unit that was heralded as deep with 5-star talent returning has been decimated in the off-season.
Junior Charleston Rambo leads a group which lost NFL first round selection CeeDee Lamb to the Dallas Cowboys and long-time Sooner favorites Nick Basquine and Lee Morris to graduation and Mykel Jones to the transfer portal.
Heralded Sophomore Theo Wease returns after seeing limited action in 2019 but his fellow NewWave19 Triplets didn’t fare as well.
Sophomores Jadon Haselwood and Trejan Bridges will miss at least the first five games and maybe more.
Haselwood suffered a lower leg injury in the off-season and his return is doubtful in 2020.
Bridges failed a drug test prior to the Sugar Bowl and will sit the first five games.
And graduate transfer Theo Howard from UCLA suffered an Achilles injury in the spring although he is making progress toward a return in 2020.
So that leaves Lincoln Riley with not only an unproven redshirt freshman at quarterback but the least experienced receiver corps he’s had his first six years in Norman, as well.
Redshirt Sophomore Drake Stoops returns and heralded Texas high school sensation Marvin Mims arrives but that’s about it for quality depth.
And none of these cats had a spring season to gel with Spencer Rattler.
So grab a roster and get your popcorn.
H-Back
Sophomore Austin Stogner returns replacing retired Grant Calcaterra.
At 6’ 6” and 259 lbs., Stogner showed that he is more than a capable replacement for the former All Big 12 Calcaterra whose career was cut short by concussions last October.
Stogner has the size and speed to provide match up hell for opposing defensive coordinators
Junior Brayden Willis and redshirt junior Jeremiah Hall also return and add a power element to this traditional strength of the spread passing and running game of the Lincoln Riley Air Raid offense.
Prediction
This unit would be considered a rebuild at any other program.
However, with Lincoln Riley calling the plays, record-setting offensive production has been the norm.
Sure there are plenty of unproven fresh faces in this group but Riley has shown a knack for blending young talent with experienced guys here and there to make a record-setting offensive unit each year.
Yes there’s no proven face at quarterback and the running backs and receiver corps are thin but the o-line is loaded upfront and Riley is the offensive guru who will need to deploy all of his magic to make this unit hum early.
I think this offense will only get better as the year progresses.
Let’s hope they don’t stub their toe early and survive the front-loaded schedule while the young-uns learn on the job quickly.
If so, the October 24 Bedlam match up in Norman could be a preview of the Big 12 Championship Game in December.
NEXT—Year two of Alex Grinch’s Speed Defense.
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